RE: What will be the next big thing after Facebook and Twitter?

John Default Asked on 25 October 2021 in No Category.

Pendaftaran ANT 4 Periode 2 2021 masih dibuka.. paling lambat daftar tanggal 5 Februari 2021, silakan daftar di https://bp3ip.online

on 4 February 2021.

Selamat siang pa.. untuk diklat apa ya pa?

on 10 February 2021.

Untuk informasi persyaratan lengkap beserta biaya silakan dapat akses di http://bp3ip.id/index.php/news-2/151-informasi-pelayanan-ijazah-dan-endorse
Terima kasih

on 5 March 2021.
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1 Answers

The people who are offering the Zen-like answer (“the big thing that can be predicted is not the real big thing, it does not have true buddha-nature”) are being a little too skeptical. Historically, there’s been a fairly good record of people seeing “the next big thing” (NBT) a respectable fraction of the time, so it CAN be done, without 20/20 hindsight. Here are some successful big-thing anticipations that I am cherry-picking to illustrate when, why and how you can predict NBTs.

  1. The moon race/Apollo was the NBT of its time and everybody knew it. It trained a generation of technologists and spawned a huge ecosystem of offshoots we use to this day.
  2. Distributed computing was the NBT of the 70s, and Xerox invested in it for a decade to make it happen.
  3. As the man told Dustin Hoffmann in The Graduate: “Plastics.” Another NBT that plenty of people saw coming.
  4. Container shipping. The entire shipping industry saw it as a grand vision that could change everything, and they just had to wait for the people with the right talents. See my review of the history of the revolution: http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/0…


What caused the early warning visibility in each case?

Default Answered on 5 June 2014.
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